College football bowls best bets upsets

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When two schools in that tier both prefer the same bowl, the tiebreaker goes to the team with the better record or head-to-head win as evidenced by the 2019 drama that saw Tennessee make a last-second decision to opt for the Gator Bowl, sending Kentucky to the Belk Bowl instead.

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The league office makes the final assignments for its “Pool of Six” games (ReliaQuest, Gator, Texas, Music City, Duke’s Mayo and Liberty), but it takes into account the preferences of the schools and bowls. There should be at least one other team with eight or more wins who is ranked higher than Kentucky or has a head-to-head win over the Wildcats available for the ReliaQuest Bowl. Even if Kentucky beats South Carolina and Louisville, it is also hard to see a path to the ReliaQuest Bowl, formerly known as the Outback Bowl, since that game is generally considered the top target of the schools in the SEC’s “Pool of Six” tier. There is no scenario remaining where Kentucky would be in play for the Citrus Bowl, which has the first pick of remaining SEC teams after the College Football Playoff committee fills the playoff and other New Year’s Six games.

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